GB News reveals the REAL reasons small boat arrivals have fallen 40 per cent – and it's nothing to do with Labour

Andy Burnham's boast of a 40 per cent drop in small boat crossings is dependent on worse conditions in the Channel and fewer migrants reaching mainland Europe, a GB News investigation can reveal.

The Prime Minister, who used his opening conference speech as Labour leader to double down on his claim, has overseen 11,060 small boat arrivals in his first 115 days in No10.

Arrivals so far this year are down 39.8 per cent compared to the same point in 2025, with 23,529 crossings.

That's putting Labour on track for the lowest annual total since 2020.

But analysis of official data by GB News number crunchers reveals there are two main reasons for the drop – and the Government has nothing to do with either.

The first is that the weather in the Channel has been substantially worse this year than during 2025.

The Home Office records so-called red days when conditions are deemed to give migrants a better chance of breaking into Britain.

Red days are defined as periods when weather and sea conditions are calm and favourable enough to give a greater than 55 per cent crossing probability based on wind speed, wave height and rain.

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The Home Office confirmed there were 110 red days between January and August 2026, down 10.6 per cent from 123 over the same period last year.

In the 12 months between April 2024 and April 2025, good weather meant there were actually 190 red days – coincidentally that's 40 per cent more than the current rate.

The second reason cited by some experts and MPs is the massive drop in the numbers of migrants who have arrived in Europe this year.

Europe's border security agency Frontex recorded a 35 per cent fall in illegal crossings from Africa and via land routes from the Middle East.

The number of Eritreans - who cross the Mediterranean from Libya - fell 56 per cent in the first eight months of 2026.

There was also a 56 per cent decrease in the numbers of Afghans arriving in Europe via land.

Given that Britain remains such a huge draw for illegal asylum seekers, experts say such big reductions will inevitably also lead to a fall in UK arrival numbers.

Rob Bates, research director at the Centre for Migration Control, added: "The English Channel is now the second largest illegal migration route in Europe.

"The Labour Government's measures have been ineffective, and the drop in numbers is purely the result of fewer migrants entering Europe.

"It is still the case that a sizeable proportion of those entering the continent are making a beeline for Britain, and it will remain as such until we commit to an uncompromising policy of detention and deportation."

Labour claims its tougher action against the people smuggling gangs is having an effect.

Mike Tapp, who served as Migration Minister under Sir Keir Starmer, told The People's Channel: "There has been upstream disruption of the supply of small boats and engines, as well as a significant number of disruptions on the beaches.

"It's making life more difficult for the smuggling gangs, from Kuwait to Calais."

But the Government can do little to control the weather - although this year it seems to have done Labour a huge favour.

Maritime sources told GB News that adverse conditions impacted arrivals earlier in the year, with choppy conditions also leading to a three-week lull in October.

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: "There has been a drop of around 40 per cent in illegal immigrants coming into Europe, and the weather on the Channel has been unusually choppy this year.

"On calm days, such as some recently, we have seen a huge number of crossings."

Meanwhile, ex-Home Office Minister Kevin Foster cautioned against forgetting Labour's overall record on the small boats crisis.

He said: "It's a relief numbers are down this year, but it should be remembered this follows them increasing rapidly after July 2024.

"A big part will be the change in tone from the Government, less talk about 'smashing the gangs' and more focus on actually enforcing the law, reducing incentives to come and increasing removals.

"Yet there is still a long way to go. Arrivals from countries which refuse to take returns, gaming of the ECHR to prevent deportation on increasingly ridiculous grounds and the lack of a credible third country option for removals still mean large numbers arriving."

Labour's total small boats tally is now 88,243 since the 2024 General Election, which would almost be able to fill Wembley Stadium.

A GB News analysis also revealed 44,359 migrants crossed the Channel in Labour's first 12 months in office, a 40 per cent rise on the 31,578 recorded in the Conservatives' final year.

Meanwhile, Mr Burnham's daily average now sits at 96.2 migrant arrivals a day, putting him narrowly behind Sir Keir on 103.5.

The Prime Minister fares worse than all of his Tory predecessors, excluding Liz Truss, with Boris Johnson's average sitting at 57.7 and Rishi Sunak's hitting 81.9.

Mr Burnham's first 115 days in No10 saw more arrivals than the same period under Boris Johnson (734) and Rishi Sunak (10,215).

However, the total is 31 per cent lower than the 16,068 recorded in Sir Keir's first 115 days.

A Home Office spokesman said: "We have made progress tackling the small boats.

"Crossings are down significantly, and we have recorded the lowest number of summer arrivals since 2020.

"Joint efforts with international partners have prevented over 50,000 crossing attempts and seized 1,100 boats and engines since the election.

"But we must go further, which is why we are boosting the number of officers on the ground in France and removing the pull factors drawing people here through illegal and dangerous routes."