He's weakened, but surely Keir Starmer is plotting. Could he survive the summer? - Tom Harwood

A crushing defeat for the Labour Party.

Losing 17 of the 20 London councils they controlled, two thirds of their councillors up for election losing their seats, and huge disruption for the Prime Minister.

Then, rumours of Cabinet resignations, of a challenge to the Prime Minister - but no challenge has arrived.

No, I’m not talking about the local elections two weeks ago, but the London elections of 1968 - when it looked like Prime Minister Harold Wilson was a dead man walking.

The Labour Party convulsed. Backbench MPs schemed for his removal.

But in those days, labour leaders were elected annually at party conference, so Wilson was immune for the best part of another five months, until September.

Five months later, the anger had subsided.

The fact that the Prime Minister was able to cling on over the summer enabled him to sure up his power base.

Harold Wilson survived the coup plotting of 1968, and enjoyed two more years living in Downing Street, before his eviction notice was handed to him - not by Labour MPs, but by the Great British public in 1970.

I don’t know if Keir Starmer is a particularly keen student of history.

But I’m sure that some around him are.

They will be aware that while history rarely repeats itself, it does often rhyme.

Today’s weakened Prime Minister will be wondering if he can survive the summer - and if those few extra months of survival, as with Wilson before him, calm the Parliamentary storm and see his ship sail on for years more to come.

One aspect this time, however, is different.

A prince across the water attempts to make the treacherous crossing.

And this is not a simple world of two party politics, as in the 1960s.

Today, five parties enjoy a double-digit poll rating.

Reform has led for well over a year. But it’s true to say they have not yet been able to sustainably breach the 30 per cent barrier.

To Labour’s left, the Green Party is snapping at its heels - in many polls now even ahead of Sir Keir’s bedraggled outfit.

Surprisingly for many, the Tories - for their part - have proven they are not dead yet.

In certain more affluent parts of the country, Notting Hill Toryism lives to see another day. The Liberal Democrats exist too.

First Past The Post was not built for this kind of fragmentation.

It remains to be seen if we are in the midst of a great realignment, with two parties ready to emerge dominant out of this period of flux. Or are we set for hung Parliament deadlock?

Much could change in the coming weeks.

But this evening it’s worth asking the question: does this Prime Minister have a path through?

It may be a narrow path. But surely Keir Starmer is today plotting - could he survive a little longer after all?