Andy Burnham's £15billion Brexit 'surrender deal' will help just 2% of British businesses

Nov 12, 2026 - 00:30

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Andy Burnham's £15billion Brexit 'surrender deal' will help just 2% of British businesses

Andy Burnham's £15billion Brexit "surrender" deal could tie 98 per cent of British companies to rules and regulations imposed by the European Union despite them not exporting any goods to the bloc, GB News can reveal.

The Prime Minister has touted next week's UK-EU summit as an "opportunity to add to UK growth", claiming an agreement could add up to 0.4 per cent to the country's GDP.

Ahead of the meeting, he said: “I think people in Britain would expect me to take that with both hands... if that can get growth, if that can help our farmers, if that can remove red tape from British businesses, I think most people would expect me to go to that summit and negotiate the best deal that I can.”

But Chairman of the London-based Growth Commission, Shanker Singham, warned the cost of any deal that forces through regulatory alignment with the EU’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) rules would be "staggering".

Using modelling from the Competere Foundation, such an agreement could inflict a net opportunity cost on the UK of £15billion - 0.5 per cent of GDP.

The sum, however, does not represent an annual fee, but rather the cumulative impact across a five-year period.

Analysis of data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), HMRC and the Department of Business and Trade (DBT) by Facts4EU, which has been shared exclusively with GB News, has also suggested the deal may not have the impact Mr Burnham is hoping for.

According to figures from the DBT, there are approximately 5,684,045 British businesses of all sizes in 2026.

From this figure, a mere 25,608 (0.45 per cent) of firms export goods exclusively to the EU, becoming 108,136 (1.9 per cent) when including companies exporting to the bloc and also to non-member states. This counts smaller unregistered businesses assigned with an EORI (Economic Operators Registration and Identification) number.

Meanwhile, just 126,029 (2.2 per cent) of UK businesses export any goods overseas.

Graph of UK businesses exporting to the EU

Despite 98 per cent of British firms not exporting anything the EU, former Secretary of State Lord Redwood told the People's Channel "many of them will be burdened by new EU laws and costs the UK will be made to impose under the EU Reset surrender deal".

Figures from the ONS and HMRC have also revealed just how much the UK’s export trade with the EU is worth: just six per cent of GDP.

Last year, the UK's total GDP stood at just over £3 trillion – with goods export to the EU accounting for £181.9billion of this sum.

This means exporting goods to the bloc made up just 5.97 per cent of the country's total GDP.

Lord Redwood fumed: "The Government is prepared to harm the 94 per cent of our GDP that is not EU exports with higher costs, dearer energy, more rules, and higher taxes from Brussels.

“How do they think this will increase our GDP? Why no forecast of the business closures and lost domestic investment and growth this will cause?”

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Graph of UK's goods export to the EU in relation to GDP

Analysis of EU Commission data has also shown how the Prime Minister's deal could benefit Brussels.

Last year, the EU exported £295.6billion worth of goods into the UK – while London sent £181.9billion worth of commodities to the bloc.

The figure puts Brussels' trade surplus with the UK at £114billion, meaning an imposition of rules and regulations onto British firms could help maximise sales for the bloc and, in turn, increase this deficit further.

A widening of the gap between the EU and UK in trade surplus could have a negative effect on the country's GDP.

The EU's surplus with the UK in goods exports

Mr Burnham's estimation making a deal at the summit next week could add 0.4 per cent to GDP has not been published and therefore has not been scrutinised.

Lord Redwood accused ministers of living in a "dream world" over the EU, adding: "Which goods do they think the EU will buy more of?

"Why are they running down farm output with grants to grow and rear less if they want us to export more? Why give away so much of our fish for foreign boats to catch?"

He added: "The EU sells us so much more than we sell them. The Government has overlooked the likelihood that EU changes will ensure their exports to us will go up more than our exports to them, which would decrease our GDP.

“My time as Single Market Minister meant I had to resist or seek to amend many new laws and taxes that would have harmed UK businesses. Under Reset we would not even have a chance to see off the damage.”

A spokesman for the Department for Business and Trade told Britain's News Channel: “The facts speak for themselves. In 2025: Almost half of the UK’s total trade was with the EU, UK exports of goods and services to the EU were worth £385billion, more than 91,000 UK businesses exported goods to the EU and our total trade with the EU was valued at more than £830 billion."

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